Jonathan’s 2027 Presidential Ambition: Between Shaky Political Base, Northern Pressure and the Reality of Structure
By Prince O. D. Agbedeyi PhD, Global Egberi Media International
Former President Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has once again found himself at the centre of Nigeria’s political storm, as speculations mount over his possible return to the presidential ballot in 2027.
But unlike in the past when the mere mention of Jonathan’s name was enough to send shivers across the political spectrum, this time the narrative is far more complex. Sources within the political circle confirm that Jonathan is under immense pressure, particularly from northern elements, to contest against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
The calculation is simple: Jonathan, having already served one elected term and previously completed the unfinished tenure of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, would be constitutionally limited to a single four-year term if he contests and wins in 2027. For the northern power bloc, this appears to be the perfect arrangement—allow Jonathan four years, and then reclaim the presidency in 2031.
Yet beneath this grand strategy lies a bitter truth: Jonathan’s once formidable political base has withered, his hold on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is tenuous, and the structures that propelled him from Bayelsa Government House to Aso Rock Villa have largely dissipated.
A PRESIDENT WITHOUT A STRUCTURE?
In Nigerian politics, structure is everything. It is the backbone upon which political survival depends. Tinubu maintained his Lagos machinery from 1999 until it blossomed into a nationwide APC victory in 2023. Atiku Abubakar, despite years outside office, has managed to stay politically relevant through structures and networks carefully nurtured.
Jonathan, however, chose a different path. Since his shocking defeat in 2015, he has kept a safe distance from partisan politics, refusing to openly align with PDP or any other party. In doing so, he insulated his reputation as an elder statesman but lost the grassroots and elite structures that could have smoothed any comeback bid.
Today, PDP itself is no longer the PDP of 2011. The party is deeply fractured, controlled by new factions and power brokers. Nyesom Wike, Bukola Saraki, Aminu Tambuwal, and even Atiku have filled the void Jonathan left behind.
Even within the South-South, his strongest base, the ground has shifted. Governors, senators, and political heavyweights once loyal to him now pitch their tents with either APC or alternative factions. Senate President Godswill Akpabio, who championed Jonathan’s re-election bid in 2015, is now openly strategising for Tinubu. Nyesom Wike has aligned with APC, while in Rivers State, suspended Governor Sim Fubara faces a weak grip on power.
Bayelsa, Jonathan’s home state, remains the last bastion of his influence—but even that is precarious, with murmurs of Governor Douye Diri being courted by APC.
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
Despite this shaky political base, northern political elders and power brokers have not relented in mounting pressure on Jonathan. According to insider accounts, some emirs, ex-governors, and elders see Jonathan as the “perfect bridge” to 2031.
The logic is blunt: Let Jonathan serve one more term and leave; power returns to the North without waiting eight more years.
In fact, sources suggest that Bauchi State Governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, is already being penciled down as a potential running mate if Jonathan accepts the challenge.
But Jonathan himself remains deeply cautious. He has not forgotten how many of these same northern allies sabotaged him in 2015. He knows many are merely seeking to use his popularity to win local constituencies, only to abandon him after the elections.
THE LEGAL TANGLE
The question of Jonathan’s eligibility has also sparked heated debate. Some legal experts argue that he is barred by the Fourth Alteration Act of 2018, which prevents anyone sworn in to complete another’s tenure from being elected twice. Others insist that since Jonathan has only been elected once as President (in 2011), he still qualifies constitutionally for one more shot at the presidency.
Abdul Balogun (SAN), among others, argues that Jonathan remains eligible. But opponents say the matter could once again end up at the Supreme Court if he dares to contest.
THE STATESMAN DILEMMA
For now, Jonathan faces a defining choice:
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Remain an elder statesman respected across the globe, with a reputation for peaceful democratic transitions.
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Or risk everything by attempting a comeback without a solid structure, with a fragmented base, and with adversaries stronger than ever.
Even his close allies admit that he is “still consulting,” weighing the interests at play. Former allies like Wike warn him not to sacrifice his hard-earned statesman image for a comeback that may end in defeat.
THE VERDICT
If politics is about structure, alliances, and the capacity to command loyalty across Nigeria’s diverse landscape, then Jonathan’s chances in 2027 appear faint—unless a dramatic political realignment happens.
But one thing is clear: Jonathan’s name will not disappear from Nigeria’s political conversation anytime soon. Whether as a candidate or as an elder statesman, his presence continues to shape debates about Nigeria’s democratic future.
As Global Egberi Media International observes, the 2027 race is fast becoming a battleground not just for power, but for legacies—and Jonathan’s decision may well be the most consequential of them all.
✍️ Author: Prince O. D. Agbedeyi PhD
🌐 Global Egberi Media International
📧 globalegberimedia@gmail.com | 📞 +234 813 490 2214
📍 Egbema Kingdom, Niger Delta
Tags: Goodluck Jonathan, PDP, APC, 2027 Elections, Nigeria Politics
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